National polls offer an insight into the mood of the public. But they can only ever provide a snapshot, not a prediction, about what will happen at the General Election.

We have created this tool to help you test your own assumptions about what might happen at the general election. It is based on the latest YouGov polling into how the public say they expect to vote in England, Scotland and Wales. It is designed to help you understand the likely scenarios should the polls tighten, the role tactical voting could play and some of the other factors that will influence the final result.

Since 2010, the UK has experienced four different models of government: a coalition government; a government with a small working majority; a minority government; and, since 2019, a government with a strong working majority.

The next general election is now firmly in sight. Current polling suggests Labour are heading to victory - yet the political arithmetic remains extraordinarily difficult for Sir Keir Starmer.

Starmer is likely to be the UK’s next Prime Minister – managing a Labour-led administration. But the evidence suggests the model of government he will preside over – and the dynamics in parliament – are harder to determine.

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